Research
Job Market Paper
Abstract: Do poverty traps exist? This question is central to development economics as it implies initial conditions can have lasting effects on long-run prosperity. I estimate the existence and prevalence of poverty traps using harmonized microdata from 27 randomized control trials covering 75,000 households. By estimating how poor households’ assets evolve over time, accounting for differences in their ability and consumption-savings decisions, I find that poverty traps are widespread: 60% of studies show signs of them. Yet within a study, on average, only 25% of households are actually trapped. This is driven by differences in productivity and forward-looking consumption responses which allow households to preemptively invest and escape low-asset states. Using a calibrated household growth model, I show that optimal transfer policy reflects this heterogeneity - targeting the poorest households rather than those near the trap threshold in over 95% of contexts.
Working Papers
Social Image and the Social Multiplier: Experimental Evidence from Community Deworming in Kenya with Anne Karing and Karim Naguib
Nudging at Scale: Combining Random and Quasi-Random Variation to Evaluate the Scale-Up of Incentives for Immunization in Pakistan with Subhash Chandir, Rachel Glennerster, Maryiam Haroon, Mubarak Taighoon Shah, and Danya Arif Siddiqi
Conference Publications
Does Childhood Immunization Rebound after Extreme Shocks? Evidence from Floods and Strikes in Pakistan ASSA 2023/AEA P&P (2023) with Subhash Chandir, Rachel Glennerster, Maryiam Haroon, and Danya Arif Siddiqi
Treatment and Welfare Learning ReALML @ ICML2022, CoDE@MIT
Work In Progress
Graduation Programs: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis with Samantha Carter, Dean Karlan, Julius Ruschenpohler, and Patrick Premand
Data Transforms Are Models with Rachael Meager